It’s no secret that elections are won and lost long before Election Day. Your campaign’s fundraising, press releases, social media posts, research, volunteer recruitment and more all play a part in a successful campaign. As voting behavior has shifted in recent years, a successful voter contact operation starts earlier than ever. In addition, the share of pre-election day vote (e.g., early in-person voting and absentee ballot voting) is bigger than ever before.
Changes in Voting Behavior
Long before the COVID-19 pandemic, the share of ballots cast by absentee ballot or early in-person was growing each election cycle. Then came 2020 and most states saw titanic shifts in the share of ballots cast before Election Day.
While many states pushed these programs with questionable practices or legality—which is a conversation for a different day—the impact is still being felt today.
Forgoing the lines on Election Day and casting their ballot early in 2020, many voters have continued banking their vote despite the pandemic being a thing of the past. Moreover, efforts by the Republican National Committee and state parties around the country, to push Republicans to vote early, is providing an even larger group of voters who will likely bank their vote.
Capitalizing on Pre-Election Day Voting
Over the last decade, Arena has been studying the effectiveness of absentee ballot push and chase campaigns through a combination of direct mail, digital advertising, and texting. With more than 30 unique tests, in various states throughout the country, we know what it takes to maximize your campaign’s impact and grow your pre-Election Day vote.
Complete a Thorough Analysis
At the beginning of every voter contact plan, the Arena team will analyze your target voters and incorporate the findings into an effective and efficient voter contact plan. This preliminary work will put your campaign in the best possible position for victory.
In many instances, the votes before Election Day are key to ensuring the race remains competitive on Election Day, when more Republicans will likely show up than Democrats.
Watch for Phoney Narratives
In recent years, Democrats have used the partisan differences in the pre-Election Day voting to try and push an earned media narrative that a particular race is out of reach for Republicans due to the sheer number of votes from Democrats (watch out for this!).
Testing
In some instances, you may even run different voter contact programs to three different groups:
- Vote by mail voters;
- In-person early voters: and
- Election Day voters.
Earlier GOTV Efforts
More than just persuasion efforts, your get-out-the-vote (GOTV) program for your base of supporters should begin the day that in-person voting begins. If voters can go somewhere and cast a ballot, you should take advantage of it.
In states with high vote-by-mail volume, like mine, it is even more important to ensure the timing of your campaign efforts takes the timing of ballot distribution into consideration. In June, I cast my ballot by mail in my state’s primary as I was not going to be home on Primary Election Day.
While I admittedly returned my ballot a few days after receiving it, I got five pieces of mail from a single campaign more than two weeks later. You may find this hard to believe, but the said campaign’s mail did NOT impact my vote (yes, that’s sarcasm).
Read More: How to Build an Effective Vote-by-Mail Strategy
While it may sound elementary, you should become an expert in your campaign’s election calendar and the critical dates for when absentee ballots are distributed and when in-person voting begins.
Tracking Votes
As ballots are cast, the list of voters who have already participated in the election will become publicly available. At Arena, we work with campaigns to acquire these lists and purge these voters from our voter contact efforts and update voter contact strategy to ensure our clients are in the best position possible to win on Election Day. This allows our campaign budgets to be utilized more efficiently and effectively.
Notwithstanding your paid voter contact operation, by purging voters who have already cast their ballots from your volunteer voter contact program, more focus can be made on the voters that remain to persuade and then turnout on Election Day.
Read More: Give Your Digital Campaign the Edge it Needs to Win
In fact, studies have found that by pushing pre-Election Day voting, a higher share of your base voters can be turned out to vote due to the increased number of high-quality touches that can be made to that smaller group.
Conclusion
In today’s political environment, the difference between winning and losing is becoming incredibly slim. It’s incredibly important to reach voters during the key times that ballots will be cast. Contact us today to ensure your campaign isn’t missing out.
