The Maine 2020 U.S. Senate race saw the Republican Political Consulting firm, Arena, defending incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins against a well-funded Democrat challenger, Sara Gideon.
The Problem
In 2020, Susan Collins was facing her toughest election to date against Democrat Sara Gideon. Democrats knew Susan Collins was vulnerable, and outside groups from across the United States spent heavily in support of Sara Gideon.
The Strategy
In the late summer of 2020, Gideon’s unfavorability was sitting at 40%. We knew that we needed to drive that number up to be successful in defeating her. Working with the Senate Leadership Fund, Arena used polling and modeling to identify the likeliest voters across the state and divided the audience into the top-hitting issues to further define Gideon.
Some of the top issues identified include Gideon’s shutdown of the Maine government during COVID-19, and a poor record of fighting sexual assault crimes.
Given heavy spending by both sides in this race, Arena knew our mail had to stand out in mailboxes and cut through the noise (see mail samples below). In all, Arena hit four tracks of voters with different negative messaging, successfully defining Gideon and driving her unfavorability up before Election Day.
Given heavy spending by both sides in this race, Arena knew our mail had to stand out in mailboxes and cut through the noise. In all, Arena hit four tracks of voters with different negative messaging, successfully defining Gideon and driving her unfavorability up before Election Day.
The Results
As Election Day approached, it was evident that our work to define Sara Gideon and lower public perception of her was paying off. Susan Collins went on to win reelection to the U.S. Senate with 51% of the vote.
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